Wagyu Auction Intelligence

Completed Sale Results

2026 US Fullblood Wagyu auction data — 375 animals across 7 sales (incl. Big Texas + Passion for Prime)

BFI vs Sale Price — Scatter (click a point for detail)

Lot	Animal	Sale	Type	BFI	MS	MF	EMA	Model Pred.	Actual Price	Variance

2026 Season Complete

All 7 tracked 2026 sales are finished — full results are in the Sale Results tab

LotAnimal BFI MS MF EMA Range Prediction

Price Predictor

Enter WBV/EPD values — model calibrated to 375 actual 2026 results across 7 sales

BFI ($F Branded Beef Index)

MS WBV (Marble Score)

MF WBV (Marble Fineness)

EMA (Ribeye Area)

CW WBV (Carcase Wt)

Animal Type

Sale Tier

Bred / confirmed pregnancy (+$1,800) Calf at side (+$1,200) Larry (CRCC 122B) pedigree (+$2,125) Restricted sire pregnancy (+$1,950) Headliner / famous pedigree — routes off BFI

$—

Enter values to see prediction

Model Accuracy

3-segment model — 281 calibration results + Big Texas (47) held out as a true out-of-sample test

Predicted vs Actual — All 74 M6 Animals

Segment	N	BFI Slope	Intercept	R²	MAPE	Within 20%	Notes
Young Heifers (W/N, 2025-born)	29	$9.25/pt	$584	0.351	14.1%	86%	Market floors yearlings regardless of BFI — low WBV accuracy on young animals
Proven Heifers (M/K/L/J)	29	$39.33/pt	−$9,953	0.425	28.6%	48%	Full BFI signal. Sire family matters — Shogun/BailUOut daughters show −$1,800 discount
Bulls	26	$43.04/pt	−$15,787	0.529	31.2%	35%	Highest slope — sire potential + semen inclusion premium above genetics alone
Big Texas — elite (out-of-sample)	47	—	—	~0.2	50%	26%	Trophy-donor sale — price is pedigree/demand-driven, not WBV. Top donors ran $40K–$120K on mid-range BFI; bulls anti-correlated (highest BFI sold lowest). Confirms elite needs comps, not a slope.
Passion for Prime — prestige (out-of-sample)	39	—	—	low	72%	18%	Sold SOFT overall — production lots over-predicted by ~2×; donor headliners under-predicted. Recip pregnancies priced flat ~$7K regardless of BFI (480–660 range all sold $6K–$8K). Pedigree-driven outliers: 312L $75K, Black Sky $45K, Inselmann $40K, Lot 88 (M6 Q0540) $410K. Two-regime finding confirmed: BFI predicts below ~$15K (r=0.46); pedigree dominates above it (r=0.20). Lesson: a sale’s price level is not fixed by WBV tier.
All Combined	74	—	—	—	29.5%	62%	Two sales now held out: Big Texas (elite — pedigree-driven, 50%) and Passion for Prime (sold soft — model over-predicted ~2×). The lesson isn't a slope tweak: a sale's price LEVEL varies independent of WBV. v6 adds a flat recip-pregnancy category (~$7K), a lower floor, and routes donor headliners to comps.