Wagyu Market Intelligence — Carlog Cattle Co.

Lot Predictor

Enter WBV or EPD data to estimate auction price

WBV Inputs (Australian)

BFI

MS WBV

MF WBV

EMA (cm²)

Animal type (3-segment model)

Sale tier

Premiums

Larry pedigree (+$2,125) Restricted sire preg. (+$1,950) Calf at side (+$1,200) Bred female (+$800)

Prediction

BFI percentile

2026 sale tier reference

Tier 3 — Elite

M6 Ranch (Mar 28) · Big Texas (May 30) · avg $8,188

$32.92/BFI pt

Tier 2 — Prestige

La Roca Range (Apr 24) · Passion for Prime (Jun 6) · avg $8,019

$15.92/BFI pt

Tier 1 — Production

G5 Wagyu (Apr 11) · Twin Oaks (May 2) · Bar R · avg $4,880

$11.84/BFI pt

3-Segment Model — calibrated on 74 M6 actual sales

Proven heifer

2022–2024 born (M/K/L suffix) · R²=0.425 · avg $9,657

$39.33/BFI pt

Young heifer

2025 born (N/W suffix) · R²=0.267 · avg $5,268 · WBV accuracy low

$9.25/BFI pt

Bull / sire

Proven sire capability adds market premium · R²=0.529 · avg $8,683

$43.04/BFI pt

EPD conversion

Dual-reg: BFI = $FB × 5.0 · AmWA only: BFI = $FB × 3.5 · MS = IMF × 2.0

±15–20%

Larry premium

Quantified from 9 Twin Oaks lots

+$2,125

Restricted sire

Sophron V29 — La Roca Range 13 lots

+$1,950

Big Texas 2026

Completed · May 30, 2026 · Billy Bob's Texas · Fort Worth

Quick Lot Lookup — At-Auction Bid Guide

Type a lot number to instantly see fair value and when to stop bidding

Fair Value

Model prediction

⛔ Stop Bidding At

Above this = overpaying

Ped. Low

Floor estimate

Ped. Avg

Midpoint estimate

Ped. High

Top pedigree ceiling

Lot	Animal	BFI	MS	MF	EMA	Low	Avg	High	Notes

Bar R Wagyu

AmWA EPD-based predictions · $FB × 3.5 = BFI equiv · Actual results in: 68 lots · avg $10,482 · model under-predicted by $4,299 avg

Cross-system note: Bar R uses AmWA EPDs, not AWA WBVs. BFI equivalent = $FB × 3.5 (US-only multiplier). MS equivalent = IMF × 2.0. L0010-sired lots (★) use the same elite bloodline as your M6RF24V435M and Lonestar. Model is DIRECTIONAL only — needs actual Bar R sale results to calibrate. Actual results confirmed: L0010 lots (★) averaged $30K–$50K, far above model predictions of $6K–$14K.

Lot	Animal	Type	$FB	IMF	BFI Equiv	MS Equiv	Low	Avg	High	Notes

Passion for Prime 2026

Completed · June 6, 2026 · 3C Events Center, Hale, MO · 10th Annual

Lot	Animal	Type	BFI	MS	System	Low	Avg	High	Notes

Seller Lookup

Enter your animal's WBV data to see what it should sell for

Animal WBV Data

AWA / AUWA Identifier — type to auto-fill

Animal Name

BFI *

MS WBV *

MF WBV

EMA (cm²)

Animal Type

Target Sale Tier

Enter WBV data to see prediction

Low Estimate

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Expected

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High Estimate

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How to find your WBV data

1. Log into app.helicalco.com
2. Go to your animal's profile
3. Click the WBV tab
4. Copy BFI, MS WBV, MF WBV, and EMA values
5. Enter above for instant price estimate

Herd Appraiser

Carlog Cattle Co — 30 animals · 2026 WBVs (incl. 2026 calf crop)

Per-animal valuation — 3-segment model (June 2026 WBVs) · 🐂=Bull · ↑=Young heifer

AWA Ident	Program	BFI	MS	MF	EMA	Low	Expected	High

BFI vs Sale Price

Actual 2026 auction results — 375 animals across 7 sales

Chart controls

M6 Ranch (74) G5 Wagyu (50) Twin Oaks (34) Regression lines Carlog herd

BFI vs Sale Price — 2026 US Wagyu Auctions

Key insight: M6 Ranch slope = $32.92/BFI pt (R²=0.38) · G5 slope = $11.84/BFI pt (R²=0.41) · Twin Oaks slope = −$0.74/BFI pt (R²=0.007 — pedigree/Larry premium dominates price here) · Bar R: avg $10,482 actual (model under-predicted by $4,299) · Big Texas: pedigree-driven, R²~0.2 · Two-regime: BFI predicts below ~$15K, pedigree dominates above
BFI explains ~29% of price variation across all sales. Remaining 71% driven by pedigree, brand, semen inclusions, and sale atmosphere.

M6 Ranch — BFI distribution

Price by sale — boxplot summary

2026 Market Data

7 completed sales · 375 animals · all 2026 auctions complete

Sale results summary

M6 Ranch — Mar 28, Alvarado TX$8,188 avg74 lots

G5 Wagyu — Apr 11, Sulphur Springs TX$5,047 avg50 lots

La Roca Range — Apr 24, Santo TX$8,019 avg53 lots

Twin Oaks Virginia Classic — May 2$4,714 avg21 lots

Big Texas 2026 — May 30Pending64 lots

Master model — all 7 sales

Total animals in model375

BFI slope (combined)$11.87 / pt

MS WBV slope (combined)$2,119 / pt

R² — all combined0.291

BFI explains price~29%

Big Texas — Top purchase recommendations for Carlog

Lot	Animal	BFI	MS	MF	Ped. Range	Rec.
10	Smith Wagyu 0008W	781	4.5	1.63	$95K–$150K+	★ Top pick
58	Bar V Ironclad 560N	765	4.6	1.57	$80K–$200K+	★ Elite MS
60	Bar V Empress 561N	748	3.9	1.44	$40K–$150K	★ Elite BFI
2	Fushimisake MS Majesty W21	764	4.0	1.11	$30K–$80K	Strong
61	Fushimisake W61	653	4.3	1.66	$20K–$50K	Best MF value
55	Wilders V199	678	3.8	1.40	$18K–$40K	Attainable

Model Accuracy

Predictions vs actual 2026 auction results

Twin Oaks — May 2 · Predicted vs actual

La Roca Range — Apr 24 · Key findings

Within 20% of model18/53 lots (34%)

Model under-predicted avg by+$1,950/lot

Sophron V29 pregnancy premium+$1,950

Top lot actual (BFI 647)$23,500

Twin Oaks key findings

BFI R² at Twin Oaks0.007

Larry lots avg (9 lots)$4,972

Larry premium above model+$2,125

All steers sold flat at$4,750